Group winners Mexico face a resurgent Ecuador in a high-stakes World Cup last-32 clash. El Tri's perfect group stage meets La Tri's gritty resolve in a battle for a quarter-final berth.
Mexico's flawless group-stage campaign has set up a tantalizing last-32 encounter with Ecuador, a side that scraped through with a gritty draw and a vital win. The Estadio Azteca will be a cauldron of green as El Tri look to extend their perfect record, but Ecuador under new tactical direction pose a genuine threat. This is not the mismatch the standings suggest — La Tri have pedigree and a point to prove.
Summary
Mexico topped Group D with a maximum nine points, scoring six goals without reply. Their defensive solidity and clinical edge have made them tournament dark horses. Ecuador, meanwhile, finished third in Group C with four points — a narrow 2-1 win over Germany, a goalless draw with Curaçao, and a 1-0 loss to Ivory Coast. Their path has been rocky, but they arrive with momentum and a belief that they can upset the odds.
Team News & Form
Mexico have no fresh injury concerns. Manager Jaime Lozano has rotated effectively, but is expected to field his strongest XI. Key midfielder Edson Álvarez has been pivotal in shielding a backline that has yet to concede. Up front, Raúl Jiménez and Hirving Lozano have combined for four goals. Mexico's recent form is impeccable: wins over Czechia (3-0), South Korea (1-0), and South Africa (2-0) underline their balance.
Ecuador have injury doubts over left-back Pervis Estupiñán, who missed the Ivory Coast game. If unavailable, Diego Palacios will deputise. Manager Félix Sánchez has instilled a more pragmatic approach after the early loss to Ivory Coast. Enner Valencia remains the talisman, while Moisés Caicedo controls midfield. Ecuador's form is mixed — a morale-boosting win over Germany, a frustrating draw with Curaçao, and a narrow defeat to the Ivorians.
Key Players
Mexico: Hirving Lozano — The Napoli winger has been electric, drifting inside from the right to create overloads. His pace and direct running will test Ecuador's backline, especially if Estupiñán is absent.
Ecuador: Moisés Caicedo — The Chelsea midfielder is the engine room. His ability to break up play and launch transitions will be crucial. He must also provide cover for a defence that has looked vulnerable against quick counter-attacks.
Predicted Lineups
Mexico (4-3-3): Ochoa; Sánchez, Montes, Moreno, Gallardo; Álvarez, Herrera, Guardado; Lozano, Jiménez, Vega.
Ecuador (4-2-3-1): Galíndez; Preciado, Torres, Arboleda, Estupiñán (if fit); Caicedo, Gruezo; Plata, Méndez, Ibarra; Valencia.
Key Battles
Edson Álvarez vs Enner Valencia — Mexico's defensive midfielder vs Ecuador's veteran striker. Álvarez's reading of the game will be vital to cut supply lines to Valencia, who thrives on half-chances.
Mexico's full-backs vs Ecuador's wingers — Jorge Sánchez and Jesús Gallardo will need to contain the pace of Gonzalo Plata and Jhegson Méndez. If they push high, Ecuador could exploit space in behind.
Head-to-Head
These nations have met 23 times, with Mexico winning 14, Ecuador 5, and 4 draws. Their most recent encounter was a 2022 friendly won 2-1 by Mexico. In World Cup play, they met in 2006 (0-0) and 2010 (0-0). Expect another tight affair.
Score Prediction
Mexico's defensive solidity and home advantage give them the edge, but Ecuador's resilience cannot be underestimated. A single goal could decide it. Prediction: Mexico 1-0 Ecuador.
Where to Watch
UK viewers can catch the match live on ITV1 and ITVX. US coverage is on Fox Sports 1 and Telemundo. Kick-off is 02:00 BST (01:00 UTC). For full fixtures and standings, visit our dedicated pages. Follow Mexico and Ecuador team pages for post-match analysis.
